Advantage Play: The System Behind The Top 1% of Gamblers

This is the most popular technique that players use. But it requires discipline and concentration over long periods. The system is usually used for blackjack but works for other table games.

Blackjack card counting involves assigning plus values to low cards, minus to high cards, and zero to middle cards 7-9. 

The player counts each card dealt and keeps a running total throughout a multi-deck shoe. 

When the count gets to a certain level, say plus or minus 5, the player knows the likelihood of getting high or low cards on the subsequent deal and raises or lowers the bet accordingly.

Certain situations prohibit card counting or lessen its effect. If the shoe is larger than six decks, the efficiency is lower. If the dealer reshuffles in the middle of the shoe, card counting goes out the window. 

Casinos don’t like it. Floor managers and pit bosses use cameras to look closely for card counters, especially at high-roller tables. If spotted, a player can be asked to leave or even banned.

The MIT Blackjack Team was renowned for consistently deploying card-counting methods to profit at casinos. The film “21” dramatized their story.

The shuffle tracker tries to observe where dealt cards end up in the deck and predict where they will turn up on the ensuing deal.

It’s also usually applied in blackjack and other card games.

Shuffle trackers look for deals where groups of high cards turn up. Then, they watch for where those discards are placed in the deck.

When that deck is shuffled, tracking makes it easier to predict a high card in a particular section of the deck.

There are some caveats here. One, this method is imprecise; many people have been known to try it and lose big money.

Secondly, shuffle tracking works best only with single decks that are hand-shuffled. Also, it is a technique that requires lots of practice.

It is often used in conjunction with card counting. So, keen observation can combine with concentration to improve an advantage player’s odds.

Casino card manufacturers sometimes print cards with small flaws in the designs of the backs of cards. 

Edge sorting is a controversial technique that involves identifying flaws. The trick is to persuade the dealer to rotate up cards so that you can distinguish between high and low cards after the ensuing shuffle.

The technique is under discussion because poker star Phil Ivey used this ploy for baccarat play and won millions from venues in London and New Jersey. 

He was sued. The incidents forced some casinos to have dealers at high-dollar tables shuffle differently or use new decks after each round.

Ivey lost both lawsuits as courts ruled that edge sorting is cheating. He lost his winnings at the London casino and settled with the NJ company for an undisclosed amount.

Phil kept his original stake at both houses. Edge sorting is not considered criminal, so you can’t go to jail.

Most land-based casinos offer complimentary items or services to players for spending more time or money gambling.

They usually issue a comp card to players so they can track their play.

“Comp hustling” is another tool players use. They calculate their expected losses and play to recoup losses and profit in comps.

This works much like taking full advantage of credit card rewards.

You don’t have to lose much to earn decent comps. By playing games with a low house edge, you can wager a high amount without losing more than the value of a comp.

Online and land-based casinos offer occasional special deals to attract and keep players.

The tools houses employ include sign-up bonuses, free spins or chips, cashback offers, and rewards programs.

Advantage gamblers are alert to these specials and make the most of the ones they figure are worthwhile.

They study the offers’ terms, consider their play style, and calculate expected losses. From these factors, they formulate a profit plan.

Sportsbooks associate special deals with championship events such as the Super Bowl, college basketball tournaments, or the World Series.

They are among the most beneficial offers in gambling.

A few shooters believe tossing dice a certain way can influence the outcome. 

Casino craps have a low house edge if you play it correctly, so any extra advantage almost certainly means profit.

But dice control is largely unproven and considered less effective because of the rules of craps.

The theory is that holding the dice at a certain angle and scooting them across the felt keeps them from turning over unpredictably. 

Casino rules require the rolled dice to hit the rail farthest from the shooter, so a controlled roll would have to barely touch the rail to be effective. 

Also, shooters rotate around the table as a point or round changes. A control shooter would have to be perfect to keep the roll.

A study in 2020 used a controlled dice-throwing machine and found no significant benefits under several scenarios.

Edward Oakley Thorp became the father of card counting when he and his IBM 704 calculated blackjack probabilities in the 1950s.

He came up with card counting as a way to execute his theory.

Oakley tested his theory at casinos in Nevada with the backing of underworld figure Manny Kimmel, and he won $11,000 in a weekend. 

Thorp wrote the book “Beat the Dealer,” in 1966 and gained fame as the progenitor of card counting.

Gambler James Grosjean took Thorp’s card counting a step further by applying it to other card games and adding other techniques to help him along.

His book, “Beyond Counting,” describes his methods.

Grosjean has rounded up various teams for card counting, hole carding, and other skills to beat casinos out of millions at baccarat, three-card poker, pai gow poker, and single-deck blackjack.

Grosjean’s exploits got him into lawsuits that forced him to prove his methods were legal.

Hustler Don Johnson parlayed high-stakes blackjack play into special treatment at Atlantic City facilities. 

Getting casinos to change their deals slightly gave him an edge in the games. Taking advantage of offers such as rebates gave him a profit.

Persuading casinos to give him this treatment created conditions for Johnson to win over $15 million from three gambling businesses. 

The casinos did not ban Johnson but discontinued the special treatment.

Some advantage players are less renowned but well respected. Scott Cao made more than $600,000 from card counting over five years.

He explains that the practicalities of advantage play require planning and commitment.

Cao takes an under-the-radar approach to his advantage play by going to lower-level tables and appearing as a local resident. 

He is more about making a living and less about punishing the casino.