According to the most recent political betting odds, Donald Trump is favored to be the second person in history to become a non-consecutive, two-term President of the United States.
Looking at the recent figures from Real Clear Polling, the average odds for the 2024 Presidential Election give Donald Trump a 60.1% chance of winning versus 38.4% for Kamala Harris.
These odds have shifted drastically since late September when Harris held more than a 7-point lead over Trump. Betting odds are generally a great way to predict the next US President.
However, as history has shown, a Trump election does not always go by the odds.
Key Highlights
- Donald Trump takes huge betting lead over Kamala Harris.
- Trump beat the odds to win the 2016 election.
- Election odds this year have been very volatile.
Donald Trump Has Largest Lead Since July 16
The 2024 Presidential Election has been anything but predictable.
What initially looked like smooth sailing for incumbent President Joe Biden flipped after the debate, ultimately leading to a Trump lead and Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
After taking over for Biden, Harris closed the gap and took the lead in election betting odds, holding a 7-point lead as recently as September 22. However, since early October, Trump has reversed course and has taken his second-largest lead of the election cycle.
According to Real Clear Polling, Trump now has an average betting lead of 21.7% over Harris. He is currently listed as an average of 60.1% versus 38.4% for Harris.
This average takes into account odds from eight betting sites. Here’s a quick chart breaking down the odds at eight popular betting sites:
| Site | Trump | Harris |
| BetOnline | 59 | 40 |
| Betfair | 58 | 36 |
| Betsson | 61 | 40 |
| Bovada | 61 | 38 |
| Bwin | 61 | 41 |
| Points Bet | 61 | 40 |
| Polymarket | 62 | 34 |
| Smarkets | 58 | 38 |
Trump’s current lead is his greatest since July 16, when he had a 48.2% lead over current President Joe Biden. A poor performance in the first debate, coupled with rising concerns from the Democratic Party, led to Biden withdrawing from the race and Harris taking over the nomination.
Betting Odds Often More Accurate Than Polls During Election Cycles
When looking at past elections, betting odds on the race are often more telling than polls. For example, when you look at the odds from the 2020 election, it was clear from June 2020 forward that Biden was the clear favorite.
Trump briefly closed the gap in September 2020 but never held a lead in the polls. By November 2020, Biden had a 30-point lead in the odds.
Sportsoddshistory.com has a list of election betting odds for Presidential elections since 1872. The favorite has won all but twice in the last 50 years, which would appear to give bettors a clear insight into who might win the election.
However, as history has proven, Trump’s election cycles do not adhere to the norm.
Trump Was a Heavy Underdog in the 2016 Election
If you look at the betting odds from 2016, Donald Trump had absolutely no shot at winning. He was never a favorite and was a 70-point underdog.
Trump’s victory was a drastic shift and easily the biggest upset in modern political betting history.
Trump defied the odds and history to defeat Hillary Clinton for the presidency. He was the first candidate since Jimmy Carter to do so.
However, in Carter’s case, he was only a slight underdog to incumbent President Gerald Ford. Trump’s victory was a drastic shift and easily the biggest upset in modern political betting history.
One big difference between this and other recent elections is the volatility. The leads have switched back and forth numerous times, something we haven’t seen in other cycles.
Harris Could Still Win, But Betting History is Not on Her Side
If you look at past election cycles, the history of those cycles does not bode well for Harris. She is a sizable underdog with less than two weeks remaining.
Recent election cycles have all shown that odds change very little in the month leading to the election, potentially meaning that Harris has a tough road to travel.
However, two things are working in her favor. As already mentioned, there is more volatility in this election than in prior elections, meaning that the odds could change drastically in a short time.
Next, it is too early to tell how early voting and mail-in ballots will impact this election. Last cycle, mail-in ballots and other alternative forms of voting drastically impacted the election.
Ultimately, historical trends are not on Harris’ side. This could lead to Donald Trump joining Grover Cleveland as a non-consecutive, two-term US President.
Sources
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/other/potus-odds/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/us_presidential_election_live_betting_odds.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_betting_odds.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
