Circa Resort & Casino Las Vegas only opened in late 2020, but it has quickly made a name for itself in the sports betting world.
Of particular note are its two huge handicapping contests run by Circa Sports: Circa Survivor and Circa Million.
And, like in previous years, it appears that the sportsbook will be on the hook for an overlay, but the question is: how much will it be?
Registration for both contests closes today (September 7) and it looks like Circa will have to eat a chunk of one of the guarantees.
Key Highlights
- Circa Sports’ two NFL handicapping contests have a combined $16 million in guarantees
- Circa Millions VI is currently looking at more than a $1.7 million overlay
- Four players split the $9.3 million prize in Circa Survivor last year
Aggressive Guarantees
Circa Survivor hit its $10 million guaranteed prize pool on Monday, so Circa’s sweat is done there.
With a $1,000 buy-in and no rake, the sportsbook needed 10,000 entries to cover the guarantee. Any additional entries from here on out will just add to the prize pool.
Circa Million VI, on the other hand, has a ways to go to meet the $6 million guarantee.
As of Monday, there were only 4,210 entries; at $1,000 a pop, Circa needs nearly 1,800 more to avoid making up the prize pool difference.
The casino does not expect to get to 6,000 entries, so it could face having to pony up more than $1 million.
Circa Sportsbook Operations Manager Jeff Benson told the Las Vegas Review-Journal: “100% chance of an overlay in Circa Million.”
Survivor: Win and Advance
The one catch is that each contestant can only pick an NFL team once, so you can’t just go with the best team week after week.
Circa Survivor is a classic survivor NFL pick’em contest. Each of the 18 weeks during the season, plus special Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas Leg selections, participants select one team they think will win that week.
If the team wins, the player moves on to the next week. If the team loses, the player is eliminated. No point spreads involved, just pick winners. It’s simple.
The one catch is that each contestant can only pick an NFL team once, so you can’t just go with the best team week after week.
Those who make it deep in Survivor will have to pick a lesser team at some point.
Survivor is winner-take-all – the last player remaining wins the entire prize pool.
If more than one person makes it through the entire season, they split the prize equally. If everybody remaining is knocked out in the same week, those who submitted an entry that week split the prize evenly.
Million: Season-long Test
There is a $100,000 “booby prize” for the worst contestant and a $50,000 second-to-last place award.
Whereas Survivor involves picking winners straight-up, Circa Million VI is a spread-based handicapping competition.
Players choose five teams each week against the spread and earn one point for a correct pick and half a point for a push.
The player with the most points at the end of the NFL season will win $1 million. Second through 100th place will win a share of $3.65 million.
There are also $300,000 in prizes distributed at each quarter mark of the season.
And for those that are truly terrible at sports betting, there is a $100,000 “booby prize” for the worst contestant and a $50,000 second-to-last place award.
Circa Million VI could be less popular than Survivor for several reasons. Players may be more attracted to Survivor’s winner-take-all, larger prize pool.
They may see picking five games each week against the spread as more difficult than selecting a single winner, and they may believe the competition will be stiffer in Circa Million, as spread betting requires more skill.
Perry Bets on Himself and Loses
Sean Perry was one of six who picked the Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots, but the Patriots pulled the upset.
Last year’s Circa Survivor attracted 9,267 entries to generate a $9.267 million prize pool (the guarantee was $8 million).
Its conclusion was…interesting. Going into Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season, 13 players remained in the contest.
A dozen of them agreed to divvy up the prize pool, each getting $400,000 and reserving the rest for the eventual winner.
Brash high-stakes poker player and sports bettor Sean Perry was the lone holdout, telling the Review-Journal that he believed he was the best sports bettor in the world and was leaving money on the table if he agreed to a chop.
Perry advanced to Week 16, the third-to-last week of the season, as one of ten players still in the competition.
He was one of six who picked the Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots, but the Patriots pulled the upset, and the six players were eliminated.
The final four players agreed to an even split, each winning $2,316,750.
Sources
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/circa-still-faces-2m-overlay-in-nfl-handicapping-contests-3161297/
https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor
https://www.circasports.com/circa-sports-million
https://x.com/JeffreyBenson12/status/1830632854415614426
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/meet-the-gambler-who-refuses-to-split-9-2m-circa-survivor-prize-2969478
https://www.circasports.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Circa-Survivor-2023-Winners.pdf
